Even as voting has started in parts of India, the politicians
are conducting a flurry of rallies. They are becoming more and more loose-tongued
– smacking of desperation (does anyone remember last-minute-revisions during
exams; reading fast and hoping to cram the entire syllabus into the brain in
the last half an hour before exams? This seems conceptually similar.).
It is disheartening to see Narendra Modi making political
boo-boos at this stage. In rallies in Odisha (Orissa), the Naveen Patnaik
stronghold and in West Bengal, the Mamata Banerjee’s janm and karm bhoomi, he
has criticised the very people whom the public has chosen with thumping
decisiveness. Patnaik has been unshakable in Odisha for quite a while. Banerjee
created history by defeating the Communists in Bengal. They are very, very
strong in their States.
In Bhubaneshwar Modi accused that the Third Front is being
formed to help the Congress. He sympathised with the poor in the State making a
veiled and oblique accusation about Naveen Patnaik. Finally he invoked Biju
Patnaik to consolidate his (Modi’s)
sympathy for the State.
In a rally in Siliguri, Modi called Mamata “wayward” and
accused her of vote-bank politics. He rubbished her platform of change (poribartan) by calling it a fraud. He even
went on to colour her Congress by referring to her political beginnings with
the incumbent Government.
Such strong statements and sentiments on Modi’s part are
like political hara-kiri.
Agreed that Patnaik and Banerjee have been vociferous in
their Modi-bashing and Modi-development-model criticism. Mamata has even said
that she’d support Jayalalitha for the Prime Ministerial post but not Modi. But
what Modi should keep in view is that they (Patnaik and Banerjee) are battling
for seats in their States only, while
BJP and Modi are batting for the country. The regional Parties only need to get
seats in their region. BJP needs to get 272 seats in the Lok Sabha.
After all the votes have been cast, the time for coalition
will arrive. As the situation stands, BJP has only one strong alliance, Shiv
Sena in Maharashtra. (This is the first election after Bal Thackrey’s demise,
so Shiv Sena without their supremo is still to be tested.) Post-counting will be the time when regional
Parties will come into their own. They will be the ones who will make the
government in the Centre. At that time, these vehement criticisms will come
back to bite Modi and BJP to their detriment. Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha
will be critical at this point because West Bengal and Tamilnadu have a fair
number of seats. Two other strong king-makers will be Naveen Patnaik and
Mayawati. The more Modi distances these four politicians, the further he
distances himself from the PM’s post.
As Sharad Pawar stated, though BJP may be the single largest
Party post-counting, NDA may not make it to the Centre.
(Read what this statement indicates about the Indian Voter in my post Mute Voters)
This is a time when Modi needs to keep his cool. Ignore
personal attacks and move on with his agenda of development instead of getting
into a tu tu main main.
This is a time when Modi needs to show political savvy and
personal maturity.
This is a time when Modi needs to train his eyes on the eye
of the parrot and not miss the forest for the trees.